Validation workshop (May 28-29, 2013)

This workshop aimed to bring together members of the IAM community with scholars who have worked on the evaluation of models for policy assessment – ranging from a philosophy of science perspective to the application in energy, environmental, climate and economic modelling. The objective was to deepen our understanding of what is entailed in the evaluation of IAMs by laying out different perspectives from within and outside the IAM community.

First Day (Tuesday, May 28)

Introductory Session


Purpose of the workshop – Elmar Kriegler & John Weyant (Stanford)

AMPERE diagnostics – Elmar Kriegler

IAM documentation – Volker Krey (IIASA)

IAMC working group on evaluation and diagnostics: objective and open questions – Jae Edmonds (PNNL)

Moderation: Elmar Kriegler (PIK)

13:00-14:00 Lunch

Evaluation concepts


Concepts for the evaluation/validation of models (20 minutes per speaker)

Robert Sargent (Syracuse)

Yaman Barlas (Bogazici, Turkey)

Moderation: Jana Schwanitz (PIK), John Weyant (Stanford)

15:30-15:45 Coffee break



PNNL hindcasting experiment – Steve Smith (PNNL)

The value of hindcasting for model evaluation – Ben Santer (LLNL)

Moderation: Valentina Bosetti (FEEM)

Stylized facts


Lessons from energy forecasting – Arnulf Grübler (IIASA)

The AMPERE work on evaluating IAMs with stylized facts – Jana Schwanitz (PIK)

Moderation: Volker Krey (IIASA), Charlie Wilson (UEA)

20:00 Dinner

Second Day (Wednesday, May 29)

Experience from other communities


Validation in economic modeling – Tom Hertel (Purdue)

Validation in environmental modeling – Anthony Jakeman (ANU)

Moderation: John Weyant (Stanford)

10:30-11:00 Coffee break

Reflection and next steps


Concluding Discussion (with input and reflections from invited experts)

Wrap-up – Towards a white paper on IAM evaluation

Moderation: Jae Edmonds (PNNL)